农业自然灾害系统灰色分析方法的探讨

On the Application of the Grey Relational Method to the Natural Disaster Systematic Analysis of Agriculture

关键词:  农业自然灾害系统  灰色关联分析  关联性质判定

Key words:  the natural disaster system of agriculture  grey relational analysis  decide relational character

摘要:

对灰色关联方法在农业自然灾害系统分析中的应用进行了探讨。认为,农业自然灾害对干农业生产的影响完全有别于生产资料投入的作用。当系统特征行为序列(χ_o)为增长序列,相关因素序列(χ_i)亦为增长序列时,不能就此判定χ_o与χ_o为正相关关系而直接进行建模。当促进因素的作用大于抑制因素的作用时,即使灾害的危害有所增加,农业生产仍可表现为一个增长序列。提出判定关联性的命题应为:设系统特征行为序列为χ_o,相关因素序列为χ_i,则,1°当影响因素的性质一致时(如均为促进或抑制),设χ_o为增长序列,若x₁为增长序列,则x₁与χ_o呈正相关关系;若χ_i为衰减序列,则χ_i与χ_o呈负相关关系。2°当系统主行为受性质不一致的因索(包含促进和抑制因素)影响时,若χ_i的增长促使χ_o增长或衰减趋势减弱,χ_i的衰减使χ_o衰减或增长趋势减弱,则χ_i与χ_o呈正相关关系;若χ_i增长促使χ_i衰减或增长趋势减弱、χ_i衰减使χ_o增长或衰减趋势减弱,则χ_i与χ_o为负相关关系。

Abstract:

The application of grey relational method to the natural disaster systematic analysis of agriculture was discusse the author's own view on it has been raised which are opposite sides for agriculture be influenced by the disasters and affecting for the means of producible. When the system action characteristic series (SACS) x.was a growth series and the factors series (FS) was also a growth series, the relationship was not necessarily to be positive between x_o and x_o and thus not directly to construct the grey model. When the effect of promoting factors was stronger than thus not directly factors, though the endangerment of disasters rised to some extent, the agricultural production may remain showing a growth series' In the present paper, the theorem for diciding rolational character was proposed. Defining there are the SACS (Reference Series) x_o and FS x_i (i=1, 2,.., n). Theorem 1° when the factors character shows no difference (all progress or all decrease), Let x_o is a growth series, thus:if x_i is also the growth series, then the relational character is positive between x_i and x_o; if x_i is the decrease series, then the relational character is negative between x_i and x_o. 2° when the factors character shows difference (include progress and decrease), thus:if the x_i increase impels the x_o increase or abate its trend of declining, and the x_i decrease causes the x_o decrease or weakens its trend of increase, then the relational character is positive between x_i and x_o; if the x_i. increase makes the x_o decrease or weakens its increase trend, and the x_i decrease makes the x_o increase or alleviates its decrease trend, then the relational character is negative between x_i. and x_o.