中国三个不同地区的活羊调运网络及其布鲁氏菌病传播风险

Sheep Movement Networks in Three Chinese Regions and the Implications of Network Properties for the Spread of Brucellosis

关键词:  布鲁氏菌病  网络分析  活羊调运  疾病传播  暴发

Key words:  brucellosis  network analysis  sheep movement  disease spread  outbreak

摘要:

[目的]揭示不同地区的活羊调运网络结构,对比其布鲁氏菌病疫情暴发风险大小,并找出其防控关键点。[方法]构建内蒙古3个不同地区的活羊调运社会网络并进行社会网络分析,采用Uninet6.0绘制网络关系图及计算相关的网络测度。[结果]农区活羊调运网络为网状结构,而牧区活羊调运网络呈现许多"雪花状"结构,半农半牧区的活羊调运网络则兼具农区和牧区的网络特征;农区和半农半牧区的活羊调运网络表现出"小世界"的特征;农区传播力较强的节点大多为养殖户,而贩运经纪人在牧区和半农半牧区网络中具有重要的传播影响力。[结论]农区和半农半牧区的布鲁氏菌病暴发风险较高;社会网络分析与动物调运追踪系统结合能更好地作为布鲁氏菌病防控的支撑,在疫情暴发时冻结关键节点的活羊流通活动能够有效控制疫情。

Abstract:

[Objective] To reveal the sheep movement networks in different regions, compare the risk of brucellosis outbreak, and find out the keys for its prevention and control.[Methods] We constructed a social network of sheep transportation in three different regions of Inner Mongolia and conducted social network analysis, using Uninet6.0 to draw network diagrams and calculate relevant network measures.[Results] The agricultural network we constructed was reticular, whereas the pastoral region network presented "snowflake-like" structures.The agricultural-pastoral network had characteristics of both the agricultural and pastoral networks.The "small-world" properties of the agricultural and agricultural-pastoral network indicated a higher risk of brucellosis outbreak.The majority of the influential nodes in the agricultural network were farmers, whereas the influential nodes in the pastoral and agricultural-pastoral networks were mostly sheep traders.[Conclusion] The sheep-movement networks of agricultural and agricultural-pastoral region have higher risk of brucellosis outbreak.The combination of social network analysis and animal transportation tracking system can better serve as a support for the prevention and control of brucellosis.Freezing live sheep circulation activities at key nodes during an outbreak can effectively control the epidemic.