| 引用本文： |
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梁炜,李雅箐,黄喜寿,李宏姣.基于ARMA-GARCH模型的南宁市O3浓度预测研究[J].广西科学,2020,27(1):91-97. [点击复制]
- LIANG Wei,LI Yaqing,HUANG Xishou,LI Hongjiao.Research on Atmospheric Ozone Concentration Prediction based on ARMA-GARCH Model in Nanning[J].Guangxi Sciences,2020,27(1):91-97. [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 为探索采用时间序列模型快速预测臭氧浓度，以南宁市日均O3浓度数据作为研究对象，收集2017年1月1日至2017年12月31日O3日均浓度时间序列，构建ARMA-GARCH模型，对2018年1月1日至2018年1月31日O3日均浓度进行预测。研究结果表明，构建的时间序列模型预测值拟合曲线基本能与实测值保持一致，经检验发现，在拟合曲线峰、谷值及其前后容易出现较大误差，短期预测结果较准确。 |
| 关键词: 臭氧浓度 ARMA-GARCH模型 时间序列模型 预测 南宁 |
| DOI：10.13656/j.cnki.gxkx.20200311.011 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（21777026），广西自然科学基金项目（2015GXNSFBA139203），广西科技基金项目（桂科AB16380292）和广西大气污染来源解析及预警预报工程技术研究中心项目资助。 |
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| Research on Atmospheric Ozone Concentration Prediction based on ARMA-GARCH Model in Nanning |
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LIANG Wei1, LI Yaqing1, HUANG Xishou2, LI Hongjiao2
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| (1.Guangxi Environmental Information Center, Nanning, Guangxi, 530028, China;2.Guangxi Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Nanning, Guangxi, 530022, China) |
| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the rapid prediction of ozone concentration using a time series model,the daily average ozone concentration data of Nanning as the research object.The time series of daily average ozone concentration from January 1,2017 to December 31,2017 was collected to construct the ARMA-GARCH model,which was used to predict the daily average ozone concentration from January 1,2018 to January 31,2018.The results show that the fitted curve of the predicted value of the time series model is basically consistent with the measured value.After inspection,it is found that the larger errors generally occur near the peak and valley values of the fitted curve,and the accuracy of short-term prediction results is more accurate. |
| Key words: ozone concentration ARMA-GARCH model time series model prediction Nanning |
