1621号超强台风“莎莉嘉”风暴潮特征分析

Characteristic Analysis of Storm Surge Caused by Super Severe Typhoon “Sarika” (No.1621)

关键词:  台风  风暴潮  风暴增水  预报  广西沿海

Key words:  typhoon  storm surge  storm water increase  forecast  the coast of Guangxi

摘要:

为积累风暴潮预报经验，本文采用统计分析法和对比分析法，对1621号超强台风“莎莉嘉”影响广西沿海时的台风资料和风暴潮资料进行研究。结果表明：超强台风“莎莉嘉”路径稳定、强度强、移动速度不稳定，其造成的风暴减水明显，风暴增水周期性明显，多为单峰型，最大增水一般出现在台风登陆前3-5 h；风暴过程中，广西沿海3个监测站最大增水出现时间、强度基本一致；随着风向转变和风速增大，风暴增水呈现逐渐增大的趋势，台风强度越强最大增水越大，最大增水出现时间与台风移动路径有关。

Abstract:

In order to accumulate the experience of storm surge forecasting,this article uses the methods of statistical analysis and comparative analysis to study the typhoon data and the storm surge data when the super severe typhoon "Sarika" (No.1621) affected the coast of Guangxi.The results show that the path of super severe typhoon "Sarika" is stable,the intensity is strong,and the moving speed is unstable.The storm water reduction caused by the super typhoon is obvious,and the periodicity of storm surge is obvious.Most of them are unimodal.The maximum water increase generally occurs 3-5 h before typhoon landing.In the process of storm,the time and intensity of maximum water increase at three monitoring stations along Guangxi coast are basically the same.With the change of wind direction and the increase of wind speed,the storm water increases gradually.The stronger the typhoon is,the greater the maximum water increase value is.The occurrence time of the maximum water increases is related to the moving path of the typhoon.