中国跨省人口流动对区域经济增长的影响——基于非参数统计方法

Impacts of Inter-provincial Population Mobility on Regional Economic Growth in China-Based on Nonparametric Statistics Method

关键词:  非参数统计  人口流动  区域经济增长  Brown-Mood检验  局部多项式回归  Ridit检验

Key words:  nonparametric statistics  population mobility  regional economic growth  Brown-Mood test  local polynomial regression  Ridit test

摘要:

人口流动对区域经济增长表现出不同的影响差异，亟需丰富实证研究。本研究运用Brown-Mood检验、局部多项式回归模型和Ridit检验，从静态与动态视角分析2015-2019年中国省际人口流动对GDP的影响。结果显示：(1)省际人口净流入平稳促进GDP增长，且随着人口净流入率增长而增长，促进作用呈先减后增的趋势；(2)东、中、西部人口流动及对GDP的促进作用存在差异，东部地区人口净流入率较高但GDP增长率仅处于中位，且随着人口净流入率提高，GDP增长率先显著升高，而后升高趋缓；(3)中部地区人口净流入率方向基本为负，人口净流入率对GDP增长的促进作用呈递增趋势，当人口净流入率升至-0.5%时，其对经济增长的促进作用开始衰减；(4)西部地区在不同人口净流入率水平下GDP增长率离散程度较高，但总体变化趋势与全国整体情况类似。建议东部地区优化人才结构、完善社会化就业培训和人力资本提升机制，在进行东部产业转移的同时协同人口流动；中部地区重点解决人口外流问题；西部地区继续承接劳动密集型产业，发展资源优势产业，提高人口流入水平。

Abstract:

Population mobility has different impacts on regional economic growth,and it is urgent to enrich empirical research.This study uses Brown-Mood test,local polynomial regression model and Ridit test to analyze the impact of China's inter-provincial population flow on GDP from 2015 to 2019 from a static and dynamic perspective.The results show that:(1) the net inflow of inter-provincial population steadily promotes GDP growth,and increases with the growth of net population inflow rate,and the promoting effect shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.(2) There are differences in population mobility and its promoting effect on GDP in the eastern,central and western regions.In the eastern region,the net population inflow rate is relatively high,while the GDP growth rate is only in the middle.With the increase of net population inflow rate,the GDP growth rate first increases significantly and then slows down.(3) The direction of the net population inflow rate in the central region is basically negative,and the promoting effect of the net population inflow rate on GDP growth shows a gradually increasing tendency.When the net population inflow rate rises to -0.5%,its promoting effect on economic growth begins to decline.(4) The GDP growth rate in the western region has a high degree of dispersion under different population net inflow rates,but the overall trend of change is similar to that of the whole country.It is suggested that the eastern region should optimize the talent structure,improve the mechanism of socialized employment training and human capital promotion,and coordinate the population flow while carrying out industrial transfer in the eastern region.The central region focuses on solving the problem of population outflow.The western region continues to undertake labor-intensive industries,develop resource advantage industries,and increase the level of population inflow.