|开展长时间序列的广西农业生态经济系统安全评价、安全影响因素和安全预警研究，可为系统安全调控、农业可持续发展和乡村振兴提供决策参考。本研究采用生态足迹模型核算2000-2021年广西农业生态经济系统人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力，通过资源利用效率指数、生态盈亏、生态压力指数评价系统安全状况，利用偏最小二乘(PLS)模型分析系统安全的影响因素，基于灰色GM(1,1)模型开展系统安全预警，并将预警结果与云南、贵州进行比较。结果表明，2000-2021年广西农业生态经济系统人均生态足迹增长90.30%，其中林地增长最快，耕地占比最大；人均生态承载力下降0.67%；系统资源利用效率提高72.97%，但2011年以来增幅较小；系统生态赤字从-0.395 hm2/人不断加剧到-1.292 hm2/人,生态压力指数从1.66升高到3.18，系统从中度不安全状态逐渐转变为重度不安全状态，并开始进入极度不安全状态；人均耕地面积和耕垦指数对系统安全具有正向影响；2022-2033年系统安全由重警转为巨警，警情等级高于贵州和云南。因此，要提高耕地保护力度，促进农业转型升级，保障广西农业生态经济系统安全。
|关键词: 农业生态经济系统 生态足迹模型 安全评价 安全预警 广西
|Research on the Safety Evaluation and Early Warning of Guangxi's Agricultural Eco-economic System
|(1.School of Economics and Trade, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, Guangxi, 530003, China;2.Guangxi Institute of Finance and Economics, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, Guangxi, 530003, China;3.China-ASEAN School of Digital Economy, Nanning, Guangxi, 530003, China)
|A long-term series research on safety evaluation,safety influencing factors and safety early warning of Guangxi's agricultural eco-economic system was carried out to provide decision-making references for system safety regulation,agricultural sustainable development and rural revitalization.In this study,the ecological footprint model was used to calculate the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Guangxi's agricultural eco-economic system from 2000 to 2021.The system safety status was evaluated by resource utilization efficiency index,ecological profit and loss index and ecological pressure index.Partial Least Squares (PLS) model was used to analyze the influencing factors of system safety.Based on the grey GM(1,1) model,the system safety early warning was carried out,and the early warning results were compared with those of Yunnan and Guizhou.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Guangxi's agricultural eco-economic system increased by 90.30% from 2000 to 2021,among which woodland increased the fastest and cultivated land accounted for the largest proportion.The per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased by 0.67%.The utilization efficiency of system resources increased by 72.97%,but the increase was smaller since 2011.The ecological deficit of the system increased from -0.395 hm2/person to -1.292 hm2/person,and the ecological pressure index increased from 1.66 to 3.18.The system gradually changed from moderate insecurity to severe insecurity,and began to enter extreme insecurity.The per capita cultivated land area and cultivation index had a positive impact on the system's security.From 2022 to 2033,the system's security will change from a severe alarm to a huge alarm,and the alarm level will be higher than that of Guizhou and Yunnan.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the protection of cultivated land,promote the transformation and upgrading of agriculture,and ensure the safety of Guangxi's agricultural ecological economic system.
|Key words: agricultural eco-economic system ecological footprint model safety evaluation safety early warning Guangxi