耦合VOR和InVEST模型的广西北部湾经济区生态系统健康时空变化研究

Exploration of Spatio-temporal Changes of Ecosystem Health in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone by Coupling of VOR and InVEST Models

关键词:  广西北部湾经济区  VOR模型  InVEST模型  多指标评价体系  最小二乘法优化组合赋权  生态系统健康评价

Key words:  Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone  VOR model  InVEST model  multi-indicator evaluation system  the least squares method for optimizing combination weighting  ecosystem health evaluation

摘要:

探究广西北部湾经济区(以下简称“研究区”)2001-2020年生态系统健康时空动态变化特征，可为研究区生态系统健康和社会经济可持续发展提供数据支持与理论参考。耦合“活力-组织-弹性”(Vigor-Organization-Resilience，VOR)模型、生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs，InVEST)模型构建生态系统健康多指标评价体系，并建立最小二乘法优化赋权模型对各评价指标进行优化赋权，对研究区生态系统健康状况进行评价与分析。结果表明：①研究区近20年来生态系统健康等级为三级的区域面积占研究区总面积的85%左右，且处于相对较为稳定的变化状态，研究区生态系统健康整体处于一般健康水平以上；②研究区生态系统健康状况总体上呈现北部、西部和南部地区优于中部和东部地区的空间分布差异；③研究区生态系统健康等级转移呈现以稳定型为主、退化型面积略大于改善型面积的空间变化特征，生态系统健康状况总体呈现轻微恶化趋势;④对研究区6个城市的生态系统健康从时间尺度和空间尺度对比分析发现，崇左、防城港、钦州3市生态系统健康状况变化较为明显，而南宁、玉林、北海3市相对较为平缓，但各市健康等级空间分布变化趋势较为吻合。本研究结果对推动广西北部湾经济区生态文明建设协调发展具有实际意义。

Abstract:

Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of the ecosystem health in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone (hereinafter referred to as “study area”)from 2001 to 2020 can provide data support and theoretical references for the sustainable socio-economic development and ecosystem health in the zone.A multi-indicator evaluation system was established by the coupling of Vigor-Organization-Resilience (VOR) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models to evaluate the ecosystem health of the study area from 2001 to 2020.The least squares method was employed to optimize the combination weighting of indicators in the evaluation system.The results showed that:①In the past 20 years,the area with ecosystem health at the third grade accounted for about 85% of the total area in the study area and was in a relatively stable state, which indicated that the overall ecosystem health in the study area was above the general state;②In general,the ecosystem health in the northern,western,and southern regions was better than that in the central and eastern regions;③The changes of ecosystem health grade in the study area presented a stable trend,with the degrading area slightly larger than the improving area,which indicated a slight deterioration trend of the overall ecosystem health;④The comparative analysis of ecosystem health in the six cities in the study area on the time scale and space scale showed that Chongzuo,Fangchenggang,and Qinzhou presented obvious changes of ecosystem health status,while Nanning,Yulin,and Beihai demonstrated gentle changes.The spatial distribution trends of health status in the six cities were consistent.The results of the study have practical significance for promoting the coordinated achievement of ecological progress in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.