| 摘要: |
| 海南岛作为重要的生态保护地区，随着城镇化的加速发展和人类活动范围的日益扩张，导致生态空间、农业空间与城镇空间矛盾加剧，科学合理地调控土地资源要素格局对是实现其生态、经济协调发展至关重要。本文基于2000、2010和2020年3期土地利用及自然、社会经济数据，分析了2000—2020年海南岛“三区空间”演变特征。设置自然演化、城镇空间优先、农业空间优先和生态空间优先4种模拟情景，预测“三区空间”的演变趋势。结果表明：海南岛“三区空间”分布存在明显的区域差异，2000—2020年，生态空间和农业空间面积逐渐减少，城镇空间增加率高达69.07 %。“三区空间”均有不同程度的相互转化，以生态空间与农业空间相互转换为主，主要集中在沿海地带。4种情景下“三区空间”出现不同的趋势变化：自然演变情景下，农业空间和生态空间分别减少0.50%和 0.75%，城镇空间面积增加363.49 km2；城镇空间优先情景下，城镇空间侵占生态空间速度加快，增幅高达44.92%，农业空间优先和生态空间优先情景下，城镇空间的扩张速度均相对放缓，耕地和生态用地得到有效保护。因此，落实耕地保护、生态空间优先政策，优化耕地、林地和建设用地的比例，促进海南岛土地利用生产、生活、生态功能协调发展。研究可为优化海南岛的“三区空间”结构，制定土地管理政策提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 三区空间 土地利用 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 海南岛 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-23修订日期：2024-09-28 |
| 基金项目:1. 2023年安徽高校人文社会科学研究项目重点项目(2023AH051571)2.滁州学院科研启动项目(2023qd63)3.“多维创新驱动安徽城乡高质量融合”科研创新团队项目(2022AH010069)。 |
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| Evolution Characteristics and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction of “three-zone space” in Hainan Island |
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Hefengying1, heanqi1, Hushenghong1, shenyuzhuo1, linchuanxiang2, changxiaoqing3, shixiaowei4
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| (1.Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS/Key Laboratory of Practical Research on Tropical Crops Information Technology in Hainan;2.Hainan State Farms Design Institute;3.School of Public Administration and Law, Northeast Agricultural University;4.School of Economics and Management, Chuzhou University) |
| Abstract: |
| The study is based on the three-phase data of land use in 2000, 2010, 2020, natural socio-economic data and social economy data to explore the “three-zone space” pattern evolution of Hainan Island. In addition, we set up four scenarios of natural evolution, urban space priority, agricultural space priority and ecological space priority and predicted the evolution of the "three-zone space". The results show that there are obvious regional differences in the distribution of the "three-region space" on Hainan Island. The area of ecological space and agricultural space gradually decrease from 2000 to 2020, while the urban space increases by 69.07%. There are different degrees of mutual transformation of the "three areas of space", while the mutual transformation of ecological space and agricultural space constituted the main type of evolution of the territory space pattern, and mainly concentrated in the coastal zone. Four scenarios show different trends of the three areas of space. Under the natural evolution scenario, agricultural space and ecological space decrease by 0.50% and 0.75% respectively, while urban space increases by 363.49 km2. Under the scenario of prioritizing urban space, the encroachment of urban space into ecological space accelerates, with an increase as high as 44.92%. Under the scenarios of prioritizing agricultural space and ecological space, the expansion of urban space will slow down, and the cultivated land and ecological land are effectively protected. |
| Key words: three-zone space land use PLUS model multi-scenarios simulation Hainan Island |
