基于InVEST-PLUS模型的南阳市生境质量多情景模拟研究

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Research of Habitat Quality in Nanyang City Based on the InVEST-PLUS Model

关键词:  土地利用变化  生境质量  InVEST-PLUS模型  多情景模拟  南阳市

Key words:  land use change  habitat quality  InVEST-PLUS model  multi-scenario simulation  Nanyang City

摘要:

研究多目标发展情景下土地利用变化与生境质量的时空演变规律，对区域土地利用格局演变和生态环境协调发展具有重要意义。本研究基于土地利用数据及社会经济与自然地理因子，结合InVEST和PLUS模型，分析2000—2020年河南省南阳市土地利用和生境质量的时空分布特征，并模拟其2030、2040年在自然发展、经济发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种情景下的土地利用格局和生境质量。结果表明，2000—2020年南阳市林地和建设用地面积增加，且增长速度较快，耕地是其扩张的主要来源；生境质量均值逐年下降，较低等级和高等级面积呈下降趋势，低等级和中等级面积呈上升趋势。在4种发展情景下，2030、2040年均为耕地、草地和未利用地面积减少，林地、建设用地和水域面积增加。其中，在经济发展情景下建设用地面积增幅最大，生境质量下降最明显；在生态保护情景下林地面积增幅最大，生境质量在所有情景中表现最优。综上，南阳市在建设用地迅速扩张的同时，林地和水域等生态用地面积虽大幅增加，但生境质量却呈下降趋势。未来应通过提高土地利用集约度和生态用地质量，在推动经济高质量发展的同时提升生境质量。

Abstract:

Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of land use change and habitat quality under the multi-objective development scenario is of great significance for the coordinated development of regional land use pattern evolution and the ecological environment.On the basis of land use data along with socioeconomic and physiographic drivers,this study coupled the InVEST and PLUS models to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of land use and habitat quality in Nanyang City,Henan Province from 2000 to 2020.Furthemore,this study projected land use patterns and habitat quality for 2030 and 2040 under four scenarios—natural development,economic development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the areas of forest land and construction land in Nanyang City increased rapidly,mainly at the expense of cultivated land.The mean habitat quality declined annually,with the areas of habitats with relatively low and high quality decreasing,while those of low and medium quality increasing.Under the four development scenarios,the areas of cultivated land,grassland,and unutilized land decreased,while those of forest land,construction land,and water increased in both 2030 and 2040.Specifically,the economic development scenario exhibited the largest increase in construction land and the most pronounced decline in habitat quality.The ecological protection scenario showed the largest increase in forest land and habitat quality was the highest among all scenarios.Overall,although forest land and water areas expanded substantially alongside rapid construction land expansion,habitat quality in Nanyang City continued to decline.Future efforts should focus on improving land use intensity and ecological land quality to promote habitat quality enhancement alongside high-quality economic development.