摘要: |
广东省有红豆属(Ormosia)植物17种,除小叶红豆(Ormosia microphylla)为国家一级保护植物外,其余红豆均为国家二级保护植物。为了解气候变化情景下广东省红豆属的潜在适生区变化,探究影响红豆属潜在适生区的主导环境因子,本研究基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS 10.8软件,利用17种红豆属植物的分布数据及22个环境变量数据,结合社会经济路径(SSP126、SSP585)的气候情景,分别预测红豆属植物在当前和未来气候场景下的潜在适生区分布情况。结果表明:(1)适生区预测模型的评价效果良好,AUC平均值均在0.8-1.0。(2)在当前气候情景下,大面积(占广东省面积的40%-100%)适生的红豆属植物有茸荚红豆(O. pachycarpa)等3种;中等面积(20%-40%)适生的有薄毛茸荚红豆(O. pachycarpa var. tenuis)等6种;小面积(5%-20%)适生的有韧荚红豆(O. indurata)等4种;极小面积(0%-5%)适生的有凹叶红豆(O. emarginata)等4种。其中面积占比最大的是茸荚红豆,总适生面积为15.228 8×104 km2(84.75%);面积占比最小的是博罗红豆(O. boluoensis),总适生面积为0.033 7×104 km2(0.19%)。(3)降雨和海拔对红豆属植物的分布起主导作用:12种红豆属植物适生区的主导因子为气候因子(9个为降雨因子,3个为温度因子),剩余5种的主导因子是高程海拔因子(5个为海拔因子)。(4)在未来(SSP126、SSP585)的气候情景下,潜在适生区面积增加的红豆属植物有凹叶红豆等4种,增加幅度为0.79%-42.43%;面积减小的红豆属植物有博罗红豆等13种,减少幅度为1.30%-78.56%。气候变暖对红豆属潜在分布区具有一定消极影响,17种红豆属植物中有13个物种的适生区面积将减少,特别是几种狭域分布的物种:博罗红豆、锈枝红豆(O. ferruginea)、小叶红豆、紫花红豆(O. purpureiflora)和亮毛红豆(O. sericeolucida)。它们应是红豆属就地保护和迁地保护优先考虑的类群。 |
关键词: 红豆属 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 主导因子 |
DOI: |
投稿时间:2023-04-25修订日期:2024-02-05 |
基金项目:广东省2023年省级财政专项资金-广东省珍稀濒危野生动植物调查监测与野生动物危害防控项目(440000230000000007278),广东省林业局科技项目(2023KJCX001) |
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Potential Suitable Area of Ormosia in Guangdong Province Based on the MaxEnt Modeling |
JIANG Lei1,2,3,2,4,2,5,2, HU Yuhua6, WU Yufen7, LIANG Jianming7, JAING Qinglian7, ZHANG Ming7, TAN Gan7, HE Chunmei8, WEI Xiao9, SHI Shi7, TANG Guangda7
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(1.College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong,;2.China;3.Guangdong Forestry Survey and Planning Institute,Guangzhou Guangdong,;4.Guangdong Academy of Forestry,Guangzhou Guangdong,;5.Guangxi Institute of Botany,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guilin,Guangxi,;6.Guangdong Forestry Survey and Planning Institute,Guangzhou Guangdong;7.College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong;8.Guangdong Academy of Forestry,Guangzhou Guangdong;9.Guangxi Institute of Botany,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guilin,Guangxi) |
Abstract: |
There are 17 Ormosia species in Guangdong Province, except for O. microphylla, which is the first-class key protected plants, and all the others are the second-class key protected plants. The changes of potential distribution of Ormosia species in Guangdong Province are analyzed with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.8 software, based on the distribution data of 17 Ormosia species and 22 environmental varieties data, combined with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP585) under current and future climate scenarios, respectively. The results showed that: (1) the evaluation effect of the prediction model was excellent,mean AUCs values of the were all in the range of 0.8-1. (2) Under the current climate scenario, the large-area-adapted (40%-100% of the area of Guangdong Province) Ormosia species include O. pachycarpa and two other species; the medium-area-adapted (20%-40%) include O. pachycarpa var. tenuis and five other species; the small-area-adapted (5%-20%) include O. indurata and three other species; very small area suitable (0%-5%) include O. emarginata and three other species. The highest percentage of suitable area is O. pachycarpa, with a total area of 152 288 8 km2, accounting for 84.75%; the smallest suitable area is O. boluoensis, with a total area of 337 km2, accounting for 0.19%. (3) Among 17 Ormosia species, the dominant environmental factors were climatic factors (9 rainfall factors and 3 temperature factors) for 12 species, and the dominant environmental factors for the rest of 5 species were elevation factors (5 elevation factors), indicating that rainfall and elevation factors play dominant roles in the distribution of Ormosia species. (4) Under the future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP585), the potential suitable area of 4 Ormosia species would increase, including O. emarginata etc., with an increase of 0.79%-42.43%. The potential suitable area of 13 Ormosia species would decrease, including O. boluoensis etc., with a decrease of 1.30%-78.56%. Therefore, climate warming has a negative impact on the potential range of Ormosia species, especially for several narrowly distributed species (O. boluoensis, O. ferruginea, O. microphylla, O. purpureiflora, and O. sericeolucida). With potential suitable area reducing, they should be the priority groups in situ and ex-situ conservation of Ormosia species in Guangdong Province. |
Key words: Ormosia Climate change MaxEnt model Potential suitable areas Dominant factor |