中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析

The Analysis of Grey Incidence about Population System Structure in China

关键词:  人口系统  关联度  灰色关联分析  指标体系  结构

Key words:  population system  the degree of grey incidence  the analysis of grey incidence  the index system  structure

摘要:

根据1998~2003年中国人口数据,利用灰色系统理论和灰色关联分析模型法建立由总人口、城镇人口、乡村人口等17个影响人口增长的关联因素构成的指标体系及灰色关联分析模型,对中国人口系统结构进行关联分析,以期找出影响人口增长的主要因素,为我国人口系统的建模、预测、决策、规划、管理和控制提供了的依据,以便实现人口与资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。运算和系统分析结果显示人口增长的主要影响因素为:女性人口、城乡人口、年龄结构、性别结构和人口自然增长率。其中,15~49岁的育龄妇女、农村人口和人口自然增长率3个因素对总人口和年净增人数影响最大。本文中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析结果较符合中国人口的实际情况,为中国人口发展与控制的管理决策提供了一种新的有效方法。

Abstract:

According to the population data of 1998~2003 in China,this text applies the grey theory and GRA,and build up the index system and the GRA model of the Chinese population system structure which are made up of 17 incidence factors(total population,urban & rural population etc.).It aims to analyze the system structure of Chinese population,find out the main influence factors about population increase,and provide some better basis for constructing model,forecasting,decision-making,planning,management and controlling of the population system in China,and realizes the sustainable development of population,resources,environment,economy and society.It draws the conclusion that finds out five main influence factors:female population,urban & rural population,age structure,sex structure and natural growth rate.Among of these,Number of Women at Aged 15~49,rural population and natural growth rate of population have the largest influence.The Analysis of grey incidence applied in the field of population system is more practice,and is a kind of new-valid method for the decision-making management of the population development and controls.