环境库茨涅茨曲线形成机制的计算机仿真实验

A Computer Simulation on the Formation Mechanism of Environmental Kuznets Curve

关键词:  环境  经济  仿真  STARLOGO  环境库茨涅茨曲线

Key words:  environment  economic  simulation  STARLOGO  Environmental Kuznets Curve

摘要:

运用计算机仿真技术,在STARLOGO平台上建立一个人工社会仿真模型,仿真研究经济增长与环境污染之间的环境库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)形成机制。结果表明,EKC的转折点出现的时间和顶点的高度,都与收入的环境需求初始值有关,如果收入的环境需求初始值比较小,则人均产量增长速度比较慢,EKC的转折点出现比较迟,转折点的顶点高度比较低;如果收入的环境需求初始值比较大,则人均产量增长速度比较快,EKC的转折点出现得比较早,转折点的顶点高度比较高。提示人们在经济发展初期阶段,应该制定相应经济政策以降低环境的损害程度。

Abstract:

A social simulation model by the platform called STARLOGO by using the computer simulation technology was established. Then, this platform was used to study the simulation research about the formation mechanism of Environmental Kuznets Curve between economic growth and environmental pollution. The results showed that, the time and peak height of the EKC turning point are related with the revenue needs of the initial value of the environment. If initial value of the revenue environment needs is relatively low, then the rate of per capita output growth will be low, and EKC turning point will appear relatively late,the peak height of turning point will be relatively low as well.On the contrary,if the initial value of the environment needs is high, then the rate of per capita output growth will be high, and the EKC turning point showed earlier, the peak height of turning point will be relatively higher as well. Therefore, it suggests people that in the early stages of economic development, appropriate economic policies should be established to reduce environmental damage.