基于马尔可夫链的油茶病虫害预测研究

Camellia Pests Forecast by Markov Chain

关键词:  马尔可夫链  油茶  病虫害  预测预报

Key words:  Markov Chain  camellia  pests and diseases  forecast

摘要:

为了及时和有效地指导油茶病虫害防治工作,分别根据2000~2009年,2001~2010年,2002~2011年广西油茶病虫害发生危害的数据,预测2010年,2011年和2012年广西油茶病虫害发生危害的等级和发生面积。结果显示,2010年广西油茶重大病虫害发生危害面积为500 hm²,2011年病虫害发生量等级为2级(333.4~666.6 hm²),2012年病虫害发生量等级也为2级,而2010年广西油茶病虫害实际发生危害面积为496.7 hm²,2011为435.7 hm²,2012年为656.7 hm²。可见3次预报的准确率都在90%以上,表明利用马尔可夫链方法进行油茶病虫害预测预报是可行的,但需要积累较长时间的历史数据。

Abstract:

The pests and diseases of Camellia are very serious in Guangxi. In order to control the pests and diseases, the damage degree and area of the Camellia pests and diseases in Guangxi in 2010, 2011 and 2012, were predicted by Markov Chain, according to the history data of pests and diseases of Camellia in Guangxi from 2000 to 2011. The result showed that the accuracy of forecast was over 90%. Therefore, pests forecast of Camellia by Markov Chain is feasible, but it needs a long history data and the environment is in relative unchanged condition.