基于MOP-PLUS模型的南昌市土地利用结构与格局优化研究

Optimizing Land Use Structure and Spatial Pattern in Nanchang City Using the MOP-PLUS Model

关键词:  MOP模型  土地利用结构  PLUS模型  土地利用格局  可持续发展  南昌市

Key words:  MOP model  land use structure  PLUS model  land use pattern  sustainable development  Nanchang City

摘要:

优化土地利用结构与格局，实现经济增长、生态保护与碳排放效率等“多目标导向”下的协同发展，对促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以南昌市为例，基于多目标规划(Multiple Objective Planning，MOP)模型与斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation，PLUS)模型，分别构建自然发展、经济效率最优、碳排放效率最优与可持续发展情景，计算不同情景下土地结构最优配置并对土地利用格局进行调整，以期为南昌市国土空间发展格局优化提供科学参考。结果表明：①MOP模型与PLUS模型的结合可以在政策、规划上对不同土地利用类型数量进行约束，通过对土地利用结构与格局的优化调整，实现经济增长、生态保护与碳排放控制三者间的权衡，并最终实现可持续发展；②在可持续发展情景下，经济效率增加5.06%，碳排放效率仅增长2.8%，同时实现了经济增长与碳排放效率的最优，避免了单一发展情景下所出现的极端现象；③不同发展情景下土地利用格局会出现明显差异，其中可持续发展情景下景观结构变化最为复杂，香农多样性指数显著增加，增幅达60.32%。研究成果可为“多目标导向”下的国土空间布局优化与城市可持续发展提供参考借鉴。

Abstract:

To optimize the structure and pattern of land use to realize the coordinated development of economic growth,ecological protection and carbon emission efficiency under the “multi-objective orientation” is of great significance to promote regional sustainable development. Taking Nanchang City as an example,based on the Multiple Objective Planning (MOP) model and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model,natural development,optimal economic efficiency,optimal carbon emission efficiency and sustainable development scenarios were constructed respectively in this article to calculate the optimal allocation of land structure under different scenarios and adjusts the land use pattern,so as to provide scientific reference for optimizing the land spatial development pattern of Nanchang City. The results show that: ①The combination of MOP model and PLUS model can constrain the number of different land use types in policy and planning. Through the optimization and adjustment of land use structure and pattern,the trade-off among economic growth,ecological protection and low carbon emission can be realized,and sustainable development can be finally realized.②Under the scenario of sustainable development,economic efficiency increases by 5.06%,while carbon emission efficiency only increases by 2.8%.At the same time,the optimal economic growth and carbon emission efficiency are realized,and the extreme phenomena under a single development scenario are avoided.③There will be significant differences in land use patterns under different development scenarios,among which the change of landscape structure under the sustainable development scenario is the most complex,and the Shannon diversity index increases significantly,with an increase of 60.32 %.The research results can provide a reference for the optimization of land space layout and urban sustainable development under the “multi-objective orientation”.