苦楝树春季物候期特征及其与农业界限温度关系

Relationship between Spring Phenophase Characteristics of Beadtree and Agricultural Threshold Temperature

关键词:  苦楝树  物候期  农业界限温度

Key words:  Melia azedarach  phenophase  agricultural threshold temperature

摘要:

根据广西12个市县气象站对苦楝物候观测资料(其中24°N以北4个点,24°N和以南8个点,资料年限14年~19年),发现,各站苦楝春季平均芽开放期(ȳ_芽开放)、展叶平均始期(ȳ_展叶始)、开花平均始期(ȳ_开花始)与当地经度、纬度、冬季平均气温呈正相关关系(r_芽开放=0.85^**,r_展叶始=0.86^**,r_开花始=0.99^***)。在广西24°N及以南地区,用各站逐年1月平均气温(X₁₁)、≥10℃始日(X₁₂)和头年≥15℃终日(X₁₃)建立的苦楝物候期预测模型:ŷ_芽开放¹=87.995-0.263X₁₁+0.163X₁₂-0.123X₁₃(r=0.55^***,n=130);ŷ_展叶始¹=74.953-0.358X₁₁+0.215X₁₂+0.111X₁₃(r=0.70^***,n=130);ŷ_开花始¹=46.063-0.267X₁₁+0.250X₁₂+0.065X₁₃(r=0.71^***,n=130)。在广西24°N以北地区,用各站逐年≥5℃初日(X₂₁)、1月平均气温(X₂₂)和头年≥10℃终日(X₂₃)建立的苦楝物候期预测模型:ŷ_芽开放²=87.204+0.123X₂₁-0.216X₂₂-0.05X₂₃(r=0.50^**,n=69);ŷ_展叶始²=80.572+0.126X₂₁-0.334X₂₂-0.142X₂₃(r=0.64^***,n=69);ŷ_开花始²=89.296-0.046X₂₁-0.363X₂₂-0.193X₂₃(r=0.65^***,n=69)。

Abstract:

Based on the phenophase data of 14 to 19 years of Melia azedarach in 12 regions in Guangxi,in which 4 regions are at the 24°N northward,8 regions at 24°N and southward, it is found that the average sprout date (ȳ_sprout),average leafing date (ȳ_leafing),average blooming date (ȳ_blooming) in spring positive correlate to latitude,longitude, average winter air temperature, with correlation coefficients of r_sprout=0.85^**,r_leafing=0.86^**,r_blooming=0.99^***,in these 12 stations.At the 24°N and southward,the phenophase models are developed with average January air temperature(x₁₁),initial date of ≥ 10℃(x₁₂),end date of ≥ 15℃ last year (x₁₃) as follows:ŷ_sprout¹=87.995-0.263X₁₁+0.163X₁₂-0.123X₁₃(r=0.55^***,n=130);ŷ_leafing¹=74.953-0.358X₁₁+0.215X₁₂+0.111X₁₃(r=0.70^***,n=130); 1 ŷ_blooming²=46.063-0.267X₁₁+0.250X₁₂+0.065X₁₃(r=0.71^***,n=130). At the 24°N northward, the phenophase models are developed with initial date of ≥ 5℃(x₂₁),average January air temperature(x₂₂), end date of ≥ 10℃ last year (x₂₃) as follows:ŷ_sprout²=87.204+0.123X₂₁-0.216X₂₂-0.05X₂₃(r=0.50^**,n=69); ŷ_leafing²=80.572+0.126X₂₁-0.334X₂₂-0.142X₂₃(r=0.64^***,n=69); ŷ_blooming²=89.296-0.046X₂₁-0.363X₂₂-0.193X₂₃(r=0.65^***,n=69).