三维双层嵌套Logistic模型在海洋工程中的适应性研究

Adaptability Research of Three-Dimensional Nested Logistic Model in Ocean Engineering

关键词:  三维双层嵌套Logistic模型  联合概率  广义极值分布  重现期

Key words:  three-dimensional nested logistic model  joint probability  general extreme value distribution  return period

摘要:

[目的]研究工程多因素复杂性的多元极值分布理论,探讨多元理论在实际工程的应用过程,以适应近代海洋工程规模日趋巨大的需要。[方法]以多元极值分布理论为基础,结合石岛湾海洋站实测的增水极值资料和同步波高、同步风速数据资料,详细阐述三维双层嵌套Nested-Logistic分布模型在工程实际中的应用过程,给出3种因素共同影响下联合重现期的推算方法。[结果]该模型加入了两两因素的相关性,对实际情况的刻画是科学合理的。[结论]模型在解决涉及3因素的水文工程问题方面,具有很好的灵活性和适定性,能够用于评估不同情况下的水文风险。

Abstract:

[Objective] With the rapid development of massive and complicated ocean engineering, the theory and application of multivariate extreme value distribution model become more important than before.[Methods] This paper presents the process of the three-dimensional nested logistic model, trivariate extreme value distribution with marginals of generalized extreme value distribution, which is the unified form of three types of extreme value distribution and precludes human's disturbance from arbitrary choice of distribution type.The joint distribution of three factors, which are annual maximum water level and the corresponding wave height and wind speed, is analyzed using observed data from Shidao observation station, where these three random variables are mutually correlated.The joint probability and associated return period could be easily derived from the model.[Results] The model is suitable for representing the joint distribution of problems involved three correlated factors in ocean engineering.[Conclusion] This model is adaptable and flexible than bivariate models.It contributes significantly to assess the risk associated with different hydrological problems which involve three factors.