广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展动态评价

Dynamic Evaluation of Sustainable Development of Guangxi Marine Eco-economic System

关键词:  海洋生态经济系统  可持续发展  能值分析  海洋绿色GDP  广西

Key words:  marine eco-economic system  sustainable development  emergy analysis  marine green GDP  Guangxi

摘要:

动态评价广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展水平，为系统优化提供针对性的建议，为广西海洋生态文明建设和海洋强区建设提供决策参考。本研究运用能值分析理论和方法，构建包括能值密度、能值货币比率、人均能值用量、能值产出率、环境负载率、能值生态承载力、可持续发展指数、海洋绿色GDP、海洋绿色GDP占比的评价指标体系，深入研究2006-2020年广西海洋生态经济系统的运行状况和可持续发展水平，并对广西海洋绿色GDP及海洋绿色GDP占比进行核算。研究发现，广西海洋生态经济系统对自然资源依赖程度大，可更新资源能值占比90%以上。2006-2020年系统总能值增加22.65%，其中可更新资源能值增加20.07%，不可更新资源能值增加3.45倍，废弃物能值增加5.13倍；随着海洋资源不断开发，能值密度提高22.45%，能值货币比率减少77.67%，能值产出率在0.45-0.60波动，海洋经济得到较快发展，涉海人员生活水平有所提高，但海洋资源利用效率不高；系统所承受的环境压力较小，但由于海洋经济粗放发展的负面影响，环境负载率增加2.70倍，能值生态承载力降低1.87%；可持续发展指数的平均值为39.99，总体上下降73.91%，系统处于可持续发展状态，但海洋优势和潜力有待进一步开发；由于不可更新资源利用和废弃物排放的增加，海洋绿色GDP占比下降2.09个百分点。因此，为了促进海洋生态经济系统可持续发展，要优化产业结构，构建现代海洋产业体系；强化创新驱动，提升现代海洋科技水平；发展向海经济，推进现代海洋强区建设；加强宣传教育，提高现代海洋保护意识；坚持陆海统筹，共建现代海洋治理格局；注重监测评估，建立现代海洋预警机制。

Abstract:

The sustainable development level of Guangxi marine eco-economic system was evaluated dynamically to provide targeted suggestions for system optimization, and to provide decision-making reference for the construction of Guangxi marine ecological civilization and the construction of a strong marine region.In this study, the theory and method of emergy analysis were used to construct the evaluation index system including emergy density, emergy currency ratio, per capita emergy consumption, emergy output rate, environmental load rate, emergy ecological carrying capacity, sustainable development index, marine green GDP and proportion of marine green GDP.The operation status and sustainable development level of Guangxi marine eco-economic system from 2006 to 2020 are studied in depth, and the proportion of green GDP and marine green GDP in Guangxi were calculated.It was found that Guangxi marine eco-economic system was highly dependent on natural resources, and the renewable resource emergy accounted for more than 90%.From 2006 to 2020, the total emergy of the system increased by 22.65%, of which the emergy of renewable resources increased by 20.07%, the emergy of non-renewable resources increased by 3.45 times, and the emergy of waste increased by 5.13 times.With the continuous development of marine resources, the emergy density increased by 22.45%, the emergy currency ratio decreased by 77.67%, the emergy output rate fluctuated between 0.45 and 0.60, the marine economy had developed rapidly, and the living standards of sea-related personnel had improved, but the utilization efficiency of marine resources was not high.The environmental pressure on the system was less, but due to the negative impact of the extensive development of the marine economy, the environmental load rate increased by 2.70 times, and the emergy ecological carrying capacity decreased by 1.87%.The average value of the sustainable development index was 39.99, decreased by 73.91%, and the system was in a sustainable state, but the advantages and potential of the ocean needed to be further developed.Due to the increased use of non-renewable resources and waste emissions, the proportion of marine green GDP was decreased by 2.09 percentage points.Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of marine eco-economic system, it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure to build a modern marine industry system;strengthen the drive of innovation to improve the level of modern marine science and technology;develop the seaward economy to promote the construction of a modern marine strong region;strengthen publicity and education to improve the awareness of modern marine protection;adhere to the overall planning of land and sea to jointly build a modern marine governance pattern;focus on monitoring and evaluation to establish a modern marine early warning mechanism.