厄尔尼诺对广西气候变化的影响

Effect of EL Nino on Climatic Variations in Guangxi

关键词:  厄尔尼诺  气候变化  统计分析

Key words:  EL Nino  climatic variation  statistical analysis

摘要:

用t检验和χ²检验,分析了厄尔尼诺(ELNino)对广西气候变化的影响。检验结果表明,厄尔尼诺对广西一些地区的月平均气温、月降水量及夏季洪涝有显著影响。厄尔尼诺当年6月,广西东部月平均气温可能偏低,厄尔尼诺次年6月,广西北部地区降水量可能偏多;厄尔尼诺次年夏季,柳江、桂江、西江流域发生洪涝的频率较高。

Abstract:

Using methods of t-test and chi-squared test,the effect of EL Nino on climatic variations in Guangxi are analysed.The result shows that the climatic variation in Guangxi is influenced significantly by EL Nino.In the current year of EL Nino,the mean monthly temperatures in June are likely to be colder than normal in the East of Guangxi.In the next year of EL Nino,the rainfall amounts in June are likely to be more than normal in the north of Guangxi.In summer of the next year of EL Nino,there could occur flooding in Liujing, Guijiang and Xijiang Rivers.