广西林业气象灾害风险调查与服务效益评估分析

Risk Assessment and Service Benefit Evaluation of Forestry Meteorological Disasters in Guangxi

关键词:  林业  风险普查  气象服务  效益评估

Key words:  forestry  risk census  meteorological service  benefit evaluation

摘要:

[目的]为加强林业气象服务能力建设，改善和提高林业气象服务质量，2016年11月至2017年5月开展了全国林业气象灾害风险调查与服务效益评估调查。[方法]通过问卷调查、专家评估和现场勘察等方法，广西共收集到196个风险点相关信息。[结果]数据显示：火灾、病虫害及风灾风险是广西风险点的主要类型。调查得知：在灾害风险点附近属于林业部门的监测站共77个，主要是监测火险灾害，其他灾害还没有布设监测点；预警设施还在不断完善；影响林业生产的气象灾害类型为干旱、大风及强降水，主要致灾气象因子为温度、风速及降雨量；森林防火、林业资源开发与利用、造林抚育等对气象服务需求量比较大，并希望通过电话、手机短信及预警系统获取林业气象服务产品。专家对广西气象服务效益贡献率给出了客观评价，全区林业气象服务效益贡献率为8.41%，按照2016年广西林业总产值为314.784亿元的规模测算，2016年广西林业气象服务效益值已达到26.47亿元。[结论]加强林业气象监测、技术开发和应急联动等多方面合作，进一步做好林业气象服务，有效地减轻林业灾害损失是目前气象部门的当务之急。

Abstract:

[Objective] In order to strengthen the capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological service, the national forestry meteorological disaster risk investigation and service benefit evaluation were carried out from November 2016 to May 2017.[Methods] A total of 196 risk sites in Guangxi were collected by means of questionnaire survey, expert evaluation and on-site investigation.[Results] The results showed that fire, pest and wind hazards were the main types of risk points in Guangxi. Investigation showed that there were 77 monitoring stations around the disaster risk sites belonging to Forestry Sector, which mainly monitor fire hazards, while other disasters had no monitoring point yet. Early warning facilities were still constantly improving. The meteorological disasters that affecting forestry production were drought, gale, and heavy rainfall, and the main meteorological hazard factors were temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Forest fire prevention, forestry resources development and utilization, forestation and tending demand for meteorological services was relatively large. It was hoped that forestry meteorological service products would be obtained through telephone, SMS and early warning systems. In addition, experts gave an objective evaluation of the contribution rate of meteorological services in Guangxi. The contribution rate of forest meteorological services in the whole region was 8.41%. The scale of Guangxi's total forestry output value was 31.478 billion yuan in 2016. According to the calculation of this value, the service benefit value had reached 2.647 billion yuan.[Conclusion] Strengthening the cooperation in forestry meteorological monitoring, technology development, and emergency response, and further improving forestry meteorological services and effectively reducing forestry disaster losses are the top priorities of the meteorological department.